Russia's leasing market is undergoing structural realignment in 2026, adapting to high funding costs and a shifting macroeconomic backdrop. Anatoly Torokhov, a board member at private equity fund Central Asia Capital, breaks down the sector's key trends: why the volume of leased equipment is rising even as the number of contracts falls, which segments are driving growth, and how the secondary market is reshaping the operating reality for leasing companies.
The paradox of volume: more units, fewer contracts
The leasing market posted an unusual pattern in H1 2026: the total number of leased units rose 6% to 201 000, while the number of new contracts signed fell 5% to 138 000.
The divergence stems from a shift in portfolio composition. The largest segment, heavy commercial vehicles, is undergoing a sharp contraction: last year's volumes fell 67%, and the segment's share of new business dropped from 57% to 37%. Because a single truck-leasing contract typically covers one high-value asset, the overall contract count declined.
The decline is offset by high-volume deals in the passenger car segment — including corporate taxi fleets, where a single contract can cover more than 100 vehicles — and in equipment. The market is thus expanding on the back of high-volume, lower-ticket positions: they lift unit counts but do not offset the drop in contract numbers in the heavy segment.
Import substitution drives equipment demand
One of the clearest positive signals in H1 was steady growth in equipment-segment contracts. The trend reflects fundamental shifts in the real economy:
Capacity modernization: industrial companies are investing in upgraded capacity under import substitution programs. Leasing lets them renew fixed assets without a one-off, large capital outlay.
Niche demand: woodworking, printing, and food-processing equipment are seeing particularly strong demand.
State support: subsidized programs, particularly in agriculture, remain a key factor keeping leasing instruments affordable.
Growth pockets in road transport: passenger cars and EVs
Despite subdued overall momentum in transport, pockets of growth are emerging within the sector. Passenger car leasing has shown considerable traction, with sales growth at individual operators reaching 113%. Demand is concentrated in the domestic brand Lada and Chinese brands Haval, Voyah, and Geely.
Hybrid vehicles and EVs are a separate driver (hybrids' share of sales up 75%). While the current spike in EV interest partly reflects local fuel-market factors and is expected to normalize, 2026 will be a record year for EV leasing volumes.
The secondary market and management of repossessed inventory
High borrowing costs are fueling demand for used equipment. In trucking, the number of deals involving used vehicles already exceeds that for new ones, and in passenger car leasing the used-vehicle segment's share has grown by more than 30%.
Growth in used-equipment deals is being driven by the drawdown of repossessed-asset inventory accumulated in prior periods. At the same time, the pace of new repossessions has slowed sharply — by 3,5× — as leasing companies prioritize debt restructuring and client retention over seizure. The discount on repossessed asset sales depends directly on the efficiency of an operator's internal disposal channels, averaging 5–15% for passenger cars and 10–25% for commercial vehicles.
While the secondary market is supporting overall activity, the average ticket size for used equipment runs 20–35% lower, which caps growth in new business by value. New business volume totaled RUB 367bn in Q1, below the average quarterly level for 2025.
Outlook: a stabilization phase and focus on portfolio quality
H1 results indicate the market has passed the bottom of the downturn and is entering a stabilization phase.
Expectations for H2 2026 remain measured:
New business volume in the truck and passenger car segments is projected to grow around 20% by value, but the gain will be driven primarily by inflation and higher equipment prices, not a surge in deal count.
A cut in the key interest rate remains the critical macroeconomic driver for a full market recovery.
Leasing companies are not planning large-scale layoffs, instead directing resources toward internal productivity gains, digitizing the client journey, and cutting administrative costs.
Tighter underwriting standards, higher down-payment requirements, and stricter covenants are creating a sounder market environment. For investors, financial resilience and governance quality at leasing operators now matter more than gross deal volume.
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